PPS-87: a new event oriented solar proton prediction model.

A new event-oriented solar proton prediction model has been developed and implemented at the USAF Space Environment forecast facility. This new model generates predicted solar proton time-intensity profiles for a number of user adjustable energy ranges and is also capable of making predictions for the heavy ion flux. The computer program is designed so a forecaster can select inputs based on the data available in near real-time at the forecast center as the solar flare is occurring. The predicted event amplitude is based on the electromagnetic emission parameters of the solar flare (either microwave or soft X-ray emission) and the solar flare position on the sun. The model also has an update capability where the forecaster can normalize the prediction to actual spacecraft observations of spectral slope and particle flux as the event is occurring in order to more accurately predict the future time-intensity profile of the solar particle flux. Besides containing improvements in the accuracy of the predicted energetic particle event onset time and magnitude, the new model converts the predicted solar particle flux into an expected radiation dose that might be experienced by an astronaut during EVA activities or inside the space shuttle.